Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Jones Lang LaSalle


Switching Tracks
March 8, 2006; Page B4


The folks in charge of transforming New York's historic James A. Farley Post Office into a welcoming new train station seem to be changing architects like Mr. Rogers changed shoes.
First there was Hellmuth, Obata + Kassabaum, or HOK, one of the country's largest architecture firms. In the early 1990s, its New York office created a master plan for Amtrak to move train services into the old postal building from across the street at Pennsylvania Station. Then federal funding disappeared. When more money was scrounged up, a team of government agencies issued a new solicitation for architects. David Childs of venerable architecture firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill won the competition with a sketch for a train receiving hall topped with a crescent-like glass roof. It was nicknamed the "potato chip" for its curvaceousness.


In 2004, Amtrak bowed out of the project, citing budget concerns. The state Moynihan Station Development Corp. dropped Skidmore when it went looking for a private development team without Amtrak. The state selected real-estate duo Steven Roth of Vornado Realty Trust and Stephen M. Ross of Related Cos., who in turn hired HOK to create a new, more cost-effective plan. HOK's new scheme also had a glass roof but evoked the original Pennsylvania Station, with tall columns supporting an undulating glass canopy.

Now, says a spokesman for Messrs. Roth and Ross, the pair have gone back to Mr. Childs to redesign this project, which could cost close to $1 billion. It isn't yet clear if the potato chip will return as well.

Vanishing Act

The number of affordable apartments continues to dwindle.

In a report due for release today, Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies says the U.S. is losing more than 200,000 rental units each year as a result of demolition, conversions to condominiums and other factors.

While such government initiatives as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit contribute more than 100,000 new units of affordable rental housing each year, that is still less than the number of low-rent units that are vanishing.

It is a concern that some think is somewhat underplayed. "In this country, we are so focused on homeownership -- that's the headline," says Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center. "But rental housing is a very important part of the marketplace."

About 20% of renters have median annual incomes topping $60,000, but renters at the middle and lower end of the market feel most squeezed, according to the study. Median asking rent in the U.S. rose to $974 a month in 2004 from $734 in 1994. But for that same period, monthly renter income grew only to $2,348 from $2,272.

Still, William Apgar, senior scholar at the Joint Center, believes favorable demographics and the maturation of the so-called echo baby boom -- the children of baby boomers -- should ensure that the market-rate rental market expands in the next decade.

Europe's House Party

The European housing market remained generally buoyant last year, but the fun may end this year.

In the United Kingdom, house prices rose about 3% in 2005, compared with 12% in 2004, according to a report by the U.K.'s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Estonia and Denmark had the highest level of house-price inflation, at 28% and 22%, respectively. House-price increases in Spain, Sweden and France were next highest, up 15%, 12% and 10%, respectively, the report shows.

But report author Michael Ball warns that European Central Bank rate increases could have a significant impact on house prices, particularly in countries such as Spain and France. Already, house prices in Germany continued to stagnate in 2005, with prospects for 2006 not looking promising with an end to government subsidies for owner-occupied housing. Mr. Ball doesn't expect a housing-market crash, but the report notes, "There are signs that 2006 will signal a marked reduction in house-price growth across Europe."

Further ECB rate increases beyond the key rate's current 2.50% -- after last week's increase of a quarter of a percentage point -- will likely be partly responsible for the reduction.
--Alex Frangos, Kemba J. Dunham and Ilona Billington