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Retail sales expected to rise 0.4%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:48 PM ET Apr 12, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales at U.S. retailers likely bounced back in March from a big decline in February, economists said.
The Commerce Department will report the March retail numbers on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Economists canvassed by MarketWatch expect retail sales to rise 0.4% after falling 1.4% in February. See Economic Calendar.
The expectation for retail sales excluding autos is also an increase of 0.4%, as auto sales were relatively flat in March. Ex-auto sales fell 0.6% in February. See full story on auto sales.
"We expect the net result will be a report that looks neither especially strong nor weak," said James O'Sullivan, an economist for UBS and the winner of the MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award for March. See full story.
Chain store sales were weak in March, with same-store sales rising just 1.9% year-over-year, the slowest growth since August 2004. See full story.
Retail sales account for about one half of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for about two-thirds of final demand.
Despite the poor February results, economists believe consumer spending recovered in the first quarter after a tepid 0.9% annualized gain in the fourth quarter, as auto sales plunged. Haseeb Ahmed, an economist for JP Morgan Chase, thinks real consumer spending probably rose at a 5% annual rate in the first quarter.
Consumer spending should slow to a 3% pace in the current quarter, said Joseph LaVorgna, a U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.
In March, the sales figures will get a boost from the higher gasoline prices, which rose to an average of $2.47 per gallon from $2.33 in February. Ahmed is forecasting a 2% gain in gas station sales.
The real wild card in the March figures could be sales of building materials, which account for about 9% of sales. With January very warm and February very dry, sales at garden centers, hardware stores and lumber yards increased nearly 9% in the first two months of the year.
It's payback time, said Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research. He figures building materials sales plunged by 8.5% in March, enough to cut total sales by 0.5%.
Thursday is a particularly busy day for the economic data.
Also at 8:30 a.m.: The March import price index (0.1% expected after -0.5% in February) and weekly jobless claims (303,000 expected after 299,000 last week).
At 9:45 a.m.: The University of Michigan will leak the results of its early April consumer sentiment survey (89.3 expected after 88.9 in March).
At 10 a.m.: February business inventories (0.3% gain expected after 0.4% in January).
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Retail sales expected to rise 0.4%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:48 PM ET Apr 12, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales at U.S. retailers likely bounced back in March from a big decline in February, economists said.
The Commerce Department will report the March retail numbers on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Economists canvassed by MarketWatch expect retail sales to rise 0.4% after falling 1.4% in February. See Economic Calendar.
The expectation for retail sales excluding autos is also an increase of 0.4%, as auto sales were relatively flat in March. Ex-auto sales fell 0.6% in February. See full story on auto sales.
"We expect the net result will be a report that looks neither especially strong nor weak," said James O'Sullivan, an economist for UBS and the winner of the MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award for March. See full story.
Chain store sales were weak in March, with same-store sales rising just 1.9% year-over-year, the slowest growth since August 2004. See full story.
Retail sales account for about one half of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for about two-thirds of final demand.
Despite the poor February results, economists believe consumer spending recovered in the first quarter after a tepid 0.9% annualized gain in the fourth quarter, as auto sales plunged. Haseeb Ahmed, an economist for JP Morgan Chase, thinks real consumer spending probably rose at a 5% annual rate in the first quarter.
Consumer spending should slow to a 3% pace in the current quarter, said Joseph LaVorgna, a U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.
In March, the sales figures will get a boost from the higher gasoline prices, which rose to an average of $2.47 per gallon from $2.33 in February. Ahmed is forecasting a 2% gain in gas station sales.
The real wild card in the March figures could be sales of building materials, which account for about 9% of sales. With January very warm and February very dry, sales at garden centers, hardware stores and lumber yards increased nearly 9% in the first two months of the year.
It's payback time, said Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research. He figures building materials sales plunged by 8.5% in March, enough to cut total sales by 0.5%.
Thursday is a particularly busy day for the economic data.
Also at 8:30 a.m.: The March import price index (0.1% expected after -0.5% in February) and weekly jobless claims (303,000 expected after 299,000 last week).
At 9:45 a.m.: The University of Michigan will leak the results of its early April consumer sentiment survey (89.3 expected after 88.9 in March).
At 10 a.m.: February business inventories (0.3% gain expected after 0.4% in January).
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
posted by Jones Lang LaSalle NJ News Blog at 9:57 AM
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