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Index of Leading Indicators Increases for a Fourth Month
By BLOOMBERG NEWS
An index of leading economic indicators in the United States rose for a fourth consecutive month as the labor market improved and manufacturing strengthened, pointing to faster economic growth.
The Conference Board said yesterday that its index for January rose 1.1 percent, the biggest gain since June, after December's revised 0.3 percent increase. The last time the index rose for more than three months in a row was in 2004.
The rise follows reports this month showing that the economy gained momentum going into 2006, rebounding from the slowest quarterly growth in three years and suggesting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further to keep inflation under control. Economists raised forecasts for first-quarter growth after a report last week showed retail sales rose more than expected.
The leading indicators exceeded all 51 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The median forecast was for a 0.6 percent increase after an initially reported 0.1 percent gain in December. Estimates ranged from 0.2 percent to 0.9 percent.
Among leading indicators, claims for unemployment benefits fell, money supply and building permits rose and vendors had more trouble keeping up with factory orders.
"Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes, and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., who forecast an increase of 0.9 percent in the index.
Six of the 10 segments that make up the index were positive last month. The decline in jobless claims contributed most to the rise in the index, adding 0.36 of a percentage point. The increase in the money supply was the next largest contributor, adding 0.34 of a percentage point.
The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 percent in January for a second consecutive month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and projections.
The group's gauge of lagging indicators rose 0.7 percent after a 0.1 percent decrease in December. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, services prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit.
Copyright 2006The New York Times Company
Index of Leading Indicators Increases for a Fourth Month
By BLOOMBERG NEWS
An index of leading economic indicators in the United States rose for a fourth consecutive month as the labor market improved and manufacturing strengthened, pointing to faster economic growth.
The Conference Board said yesterday that its index for January rose 1.1 percent, the biggest gain since June, after December's revised 0.3 percent increase. The last time the index rose for more than three months in a row was in 2004.
The rise follows reports this month showing that the economy gained momentum going into 2006, rebounding from the slowest quarterly growth in three years and suggesting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further to keep inflation under control. Economists raised forecasts for first-quarter growth after a report last week showed retail sales rose more than expected.
The leading indicators exceeded all 51 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The median forecast was for a 0.6 percent increase after an initially reported 0.1 percent gain in December. Estimates ranged from 0.2 percent to 0.9 percent.
Among leading indicators, claims for unemployment benefits fell, money supply and building permits rose and vendors had more trouble keeping up with factory orders.
"Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes, and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., who forecast an increase of 0.9 percent in the index.
Six of the 10 segments that make up the index were positive last month. The decline in jobless claims contributed most to the rise in the index, adding 0.36 of a percentage point. The increase in the money supply was the next largest contributor, adding 0.34 of a percentage point.
The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 percent in January for a second consecutive month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and projections.
The group's gauge of lagging indicators rose 0.7 percent after a 0.1 percent decrease in December. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, services prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit.
Copyright 2006The New York Times Company
posted by Jones Lang LaSalle NJ News Blog at 4:47 PM
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